The First Academy Awards ceremony was held in the Ballroom of the Hollywood Roosevelt Hotel in Los Angeles on May 16, 1929.

Since then, there have been 88 awards ceremonies, and on March 4 of this year we will see the 90th Academy Awards. 

Here are my predictions for this year.

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri” has a good chance of winning since it’s a movie with a creative premise that delivers. It has already won a Golden Globe for Best Original Screenplay. 

Although the Golden Globes are not a perfect indicator of the Oscars, they often align, which might lead the hugely successful Frances McDormand to win her second Best Actress award for “Three Billboards.”

Like “Three Billboards, ”McDormand’s dark comedy, “Fargo” (1996), was also about a murder in a small town. She won her only Oscar for that film.

It’s no secret that the Academy loves movies about the film industry. Films such as “The Artist (2011)” and “Argo (2012)” won best picture at the Oscars.

“The Disaster Artist” could follow in their footsteps as it’s not just about the making of a movie, but it’s about the making of the best worst movie of all time. I would bet money that Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber are going to leave the Oscars with a Best Adapted Screenplay award.

It’s also no secret the academy loves to give awards to actors portraying real people, especially British historical figures and political leaders. Colin Firth (King George VI), Helen Mirren (Queen Elizabeth), and Meryl Streep (British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher) all won for their portrayals.

Gary Oldman has been an accomplished actor for almost 40 years and he has never won an Oscar. It was a smart choice to play British Prime Minister Winston Churchill as this might be his year to take home the gold. If he can beat three-time Oscar winner and fellow Brit Daniel Day Lewis, then he’s the biggest winner of the ceremony. 

The Oscars have a tendency to take pity on actors who have no Oscars over actors who have at least one. It was quite the upset last year when Casey Affleck won Best Actor for “Manchester By The Sea” over preferred winner Denzel Washington, for his role in “Fences”. 

Many critics and columnists predicted that Affleck would win despite Washington giving the better performance because Washington already had two Oscars while Affleck had none. Thus, it will be no surprise if it occurs again this year. 

Saorise Ronan has a very strong performance in “Lady Bird”, but compared to McDormand’s role the performance quality is not even close. McDormand has been one of my favorite actresses ever since her performance in “Almost Famous”. 

She has kept up her streak of strong performances and deserves the Oscar this year. But with one Oscar already on her shelf for “Fargo” and Ronan having none, the gold will probably go to Ronan.

“Lady Bird” was this year’s little indie movie that could. Director Greta Gerwig wasn’t that famous outside of independent movie circles and the actors were not particularly big names. 

Films like these that fly beneath the radar are only seen by hipsters. But “Lady Bird” has found a mainstream audience. 

The film has well-acted performances, especially the leads. The script is funny and heartwarming and has a relatable, coming of age story with a heartfelt message about home sweet home.

 “Lady Bird” has a chance to beat the eight other movies nominated in the Best Picture category because of the distinct way we can see ourselves in the main characters.